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Yankee's avatar

There are wildcards that no one anticipated, as other commenters point out, namely Musk and his decapitation strike against the federal government, and Trump's tariffs. The Heritage Foundation people expected to have a robust economy keeping the base placid, while they systematically infiltrated and turned the civil service to their own purposes. But Trump is far too paranoid to allow them to be in control, so Musk was elevated to be the agent of retribution against the rebellious civil service. Now the federal government is in chaos, and the economy is rapidly weakening, which has snapped the base out of their hypnosis and caused support to hemorrhage. None of his enablers planned on tariffs that would explode US alliances and alarm every American into hyperfocus on Washington. Lastly, there are actors who have power that are left out of this analysis entirely. First, the American people have considerable power of the purse, and leverage through elected representatives at the local and state level to simply ignore policy "suggestions" made by Executive Orders. Second, large institutions have found their footing to resist and ignore instructions from the Executive. There was a lag in which Americans were overwhelmed by the swift decapitation of the civil service, but once they began to demand opposition, the tone changed considerably, including from Congressional Democrats, and Supreme Court justices. Lastly, in my opinion, the authors radically underestimate the capacity of ordinary Americans for armed resistance, particularly when the right to bear arms and form militias to protect the republic against domestic tyranny is specifically given to citizens in the Constitution. The authors also apparently take for granted the willingness of government law enforcement and military personnel to use force against the population. Speaking just for my family, they were in the Domesday book in 1086, and lived under the Norman boot for 538 years before emigrating to Plymouth Colony. It took another 152 years before they were able to eject the British monarchy from America, so they suffered under the monarchy for 714 years before the establishment of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts in 1780. There is no power in heaven or on earth that would make us acquiesce to the destruction of the democratic republic.

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William Cullerne Bown's avatar

I found this really helpful. Painstaking analysis, rooted in an experience we're all living through. I relied on it in an attempt to combine the concern for authoritarianism here with patrimonialism and ideology to build up a rounded picture of Trump 2 - https://williamcullernebown.substack.com/p/trump-2-what-is-it-really

It's no less pessimistic I'm afraid.

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Chris Van Orden's avatar

Go over to X.

According to folks posting on X …

… all the Hands Off protestors are “paid actors”.

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Mary Eide's avatar

Dear Thomas,

Thank you for your insightful observations.

For years I've been asking: who will stop them? I've never heard a response that wasn't contrary to all available evidence. The collective belief that public or civil actors who have repeatedly shown themselves to be bereft of courage or conviction would somehow rise to the occasion and save the day has literally paved the road that brought us here.

Decades of cumulative experience of the bad actors, on the other hand, demonstrates that there are no meaningful negative consequences for their actions. People say the administration is 'testing' the boundaries, but I don't think they're even engaging in risk analysis at this point. Why would they? What reason do they have to believe they won't succeed? In addition, they don't seem to be particularly concerned about future electoral performance.

Praying I'm wrong while holding an increasingly tenuous grip on hope.

In love and gratitude.

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john king (MY HUMBLE OPINION)'s avatar

Trump Targeting Students Who Protest.

Rubio wants them all deported.

The United States is resembling an authoritarian state, more each day, under President Trump. There is no denying the path the U.S. has taken since the January 20th Inauguration, beginning Trump’s second term in office.

Reportedly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has revoked visas for about 300 students, who are from the Middle East. The commonly accepted view is that their persecution is retaliation for protesting Israel’s war against Palestinians. Using an old, seldom utilized statute, Section 237 of the Immigration and Nationality Act

Apparently, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has been using AI to access the Student and Exchange Visitor Information System (SEVIS) to determine their targets, and revoking visas This is being done without any input from universities, or any notice being given to affected students, who fear they are on the growing list of coming arrests and possible deportations.

On Saturday March 8th, Department of homeland Security (DHS) arrested Mahmoud Khalil in New York, and told him his visa was revoked. Khalil was with his pregnant wife Noor Abdalla, who informed agents that her husband had a Green Card, but was told that had been cancelled as well. The Trump administration accused Khalil of being a threat to US security, who posed serious adverse foreign policy consequences for the United States.

Tufts Graduate student Rumeysa Ozturk, was taken by masked immigration officials earlier this week in Boston. DHS accused her of engaging in activities supporting Hamas. The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) believes the arrest was retaliation for her opinions expressed in the student newspaper, asking the university to speak out against Palestinian genocide.

Judges in both cases have issued orders that the students not be deported from America. ICE has moved both Khalil and Ozturk to detention centres in Louisiana, where they are being detained without formal charges. Both were detained without habeas corpus, causing other students to fear they may be arrested without warning, for expressing their opinions or protesting. Government lawyers are appealing both judicial rulings.

Early in March, Trump wrote on Truth Social, “All Federal Funding will STOP for any College, School or University that allows illegal protests. Agitators will be imprisoned/or permanently sent back to the country from which they came.”

Trump threatened 50-60 educational institutions, that he accused of allowing antisemitic protests, harassment and DEI policies. Columbia University’s capitulation to the White House’s demands, in hopes of restoring $400 million in funding, was widely reported. That school promised to overhaul its protest policies, security protocols and its Middle Eastern studies department.

Proponents of The First Amendment have expressed outrage at the attempt to suppress freedom of speech, and see the actions of the government as warnings to anyone who would voice objections.

Personally, I fear this is just the beginning of a wider campaign to silence dissent against this authoritarian administration. I feel for these students, who must live in fear of ICE abducting them illegally. These actions should be taken as a warning that Trump will not tolerate free speech, unless it is voiced by his regime. Unfortunately, it will take outraged students protesting to enact significant policy changes, as it did during the Vietnam War. I pray we won't witness another Kent State debacle, but I believe Trump is itching for an excuse to enact martial law, in order to advance his Project 2025 agenda unhindered by opposition.

(credits to Zeteo, The Guardian, CNN)

Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.

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Christopher Soniat's avatar

Excellent essay. There is a ray of hope that a coordinated resistance will exert its influence, on Democrats, but just as critically on corporations, through our vast economic power.

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hw's avatar

Corporations have capitulated, law firms have capitulated, corporate media has capitulated, universities have capitulated.

Musk has decimated the federal government, our allies are aligning in opposition, if tariffs proceed, our economy will implode, a hand grenade has been thrown into public education, Musk is buying a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.

The only opposition is the courts, and there are only so many body blows they can endure.

Unions have been attacked, veteran's benefits have been slashed and 80K are slated to be fired...and neither institution is organizing any opposition.

American people are largely unengaged, and uninterested in long-term boycotts, strikes, or protests.

I currently don't see anyway out in the next 4 years..or even tbe next few decades.

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Hai Yu's avatar

Thank you for not building up a paying wall for the good article!!

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Sandra Diesel's avatar

I started reading Project 2025 last year; it pretty much lays out what is happening & it is of course, Trump’s agenda. It’s chilling. Russell Vaught stated that his agenda is to cause as much pain as possible, bring Democracy down & replace it with Christian Nationalism.

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Zeke Harker's avatar

Well stated piece, thank you for this.

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Chris Brandow's avatar

People keep saying that we are underestimating the threat. I just don't understand this complaint. Certainly this * might * have been true in 2016, but it's not like anyone found him remotely qualified or acceptable then. We just didn't understand how electable he was.

It feels very much much more to me that we have not identified a plausible solution to the obvious threat flashing before our eyes every time Trump has approached the national stage. I mean the authoritarian discourse was so prominent that it got exhausting.

Our current predicament is not for a lack of ringing the bell as loudly as we can.

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Thomas Zimmer's avatar

No idea what you mean by "We." You are commenting on a long piece that gives plenty of concrete examples, references, citations - and grapples with a long piece published in Foreign Affairs by two of the leading experts on authoritarianism in particular. Why not comment on any of the arguments that are actually in the text?

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Chris Brandow's avatar

Sorry for the lack of clarity.

This piece, as I understand it, does a great job distinguishing whether the political establishment took seriously enough the threat of actual authoritarianism rather than mere competitive authoritarianism. It highlights whether either of these is at this moment, "a threat", or just our reality. If I'm continuing to miss your point, then my further apologies.

My point is the media was saturated last year by the threat that Trump posed to our constitutional order. Anyone who was remotely convincible heard that message over and over and over again. There were arguments over whether he had facist tendencies or merely authoritarian tendencies.

I don't think that the clarification between what kind of authoritarianism was going to creep into our democracy would have been any more or less convincing.

Our problem is that not enough people cared, and we don't seem to actually know how to make them care.

I guess what I am trying to say is what actions could have been taken by the non-Trumpist political establishment that would have altered our current outcomes?

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Leslie's avatar

Excellent piece. I would say that to describe the Democratic Party as “in a shambles” may be a bit inaccurate, at least if you include the grassroots of that party. There is quite a bit of energy going into pro-democracy groups, fundraising, badgering (by phone and email and in person) representatives, campaigning for special elections and for 2026. The Democratic AGs were quite ready for this administration, as we are seeing, and now they are holding town halls all over the country to hear people’s stories. And there are all the protests and marches.

It’s a steep mountain to climb, I know. But a lot of people are determined to do it.

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Selena Long's avatar

Great piece. I’d add, after Shelby and Citizens United, Congressional Rs focused on getting power back in all branches. Disfunction has been Rs design in the Obama years … priming the system and stoking apathy from voters (McConnell, Party of No, etc.). Add the Christian nationalists (who are the administrators of the regime), crypto interests (the funders of the regime) and corporations (the media for the regime), and here we are.

Crypto money infiltrated Dems two yrs ago (minimum), but took over in 2024’s elections. Compromised Dems are the NY delegation (see zero pushback on Adams), Ruben Gallego — they’re easy to find online — and Dems put Gillibrand in charge of electing Senators.

Voters face Reps captured by raw financial power, present like no other time in US history - Gallego’s town hall this week is invitation only; the same way Tennesse voters get into the Statehouse (we crossed over into sham democracy yrs ago). Voters will be written out of the process totally under this regime, and it’ll happen with Dem help.

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Linda Weide's avatar

I did read Project 2025 and realized in 2 weeks that Musk was a factor unaccounted for that is doing the thing in Project 2025 that were supposed to rely on Congress to do, which this Congress is willing to do, but now do not even get the chance, other than that they don't stand in the way.

I am in a Democrats Abroad Political Book Club and currently we are reading Jefferson Cowie's book Freedom's Dominion. It points out a different understanding of Freedom that the White Supremacists of the USA have, and this is a White Supremacist Country made more fully explicit under Trump. Their idea of freedom is the idea of White men, particularly propertied ones, being free to do whatever they want, including owning other people, and having no consequences for when they break the law including murder. This is the free for me, but not for thee sort of freedom. I call the Trump and Musk administration the New Feudalism. As a person with brown skin, I have never viewed the US as the democratic stronghold that White Americans see this country as being.

Fascism expert Ruth Ben-Ghiat has been saying this is a form of autocracy that she has not seen before. One, because both Trump and Musk are running the country together, which she does not know other models for, and two, because it is happening so rapidly. She has weekly Zoom meetings with her subscribers, and someone who had lived in Brazil under autocracy was asking when she thinks we cross over into that. She does not know. I find a lot of Substack people who have a leader role feel that they have to point out what we can do and how to be optimistic. I have been saying worse case scenario I see the US becoming a failed state as the Kleptocrats suck every penny out of it, perhaps go elsewhere (they all have homes in other countries), and leave the US without a functioning governmental or any money. A Haiti if you will.

I have said a solution is that Blue States Secede. Everyone tells me this cannot happen. I think if it happens it better be pretty quick like in 2026, with that being the year where people decide which way they go. I like Whittenberger's discussion of it, but I realize it is not a fully realized plan. A basis to think about this.

https://secularhumanism.org/exclusive/secession/

Governors need to negotiate. My US state is a trifecta Blue State, but we just had one of our senators vote with Schumer for the CR. I am more than furious. I am told that Blue State secession cannot happen because of a constitution which is no longer functioning so both can take advantage of that. Secondly, they can do a defacto secession by not paying taxes to the federal government, and putting that money in escrow with demands made on the government in order to get the tax money. In fact, with Trump firing the IRS, it is not just his wealthy cronies they cannot go after, but no one else either. One thing I will assume is that the people Trump is deporting will not be paying taxes to the US, even though they require this of people for a while.

I am mostly living in Europe and the people I am around are upset when I mention that I am preparing for scenarios that they don't want to think about. I am a dual citizen. I had family living in the DDR so friends here and I have been preparing for our access to information using American platforms may diminish, and have been looking at ways to de-platform from US tech such as emails, messaging, drives, and VPNs. That includes computers and phones too. I am in a certain limbo status on this right now.

I am also considering that there might be a war against the country I am living in. That is a war in Europe with Russia and perhaps the US as the aggressors. I have already been discussing a plan with my daughter for us to go to my husbands relatives in the countryside if this happens, because we both live in cities that I assume would be targets of missile attacks. I have been asking my mayor's office what is going on with our bomb shelters in case an attack happens while I am living here. I have one that is 2 blocks from my house. My painter said he can get me gas masks. I am looking at different lists of things one should stock up on. My house has a half basement that is not full height so I am wondering whether we can afford to outfit it for a shelter, or whether we should have an above ground shelter. These are all things that I now consider, and hope for better than the worst case scenario, but one of them has already happened, which is that Trump has become president.

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MJane's avatar

I dream of blue states seceding. I'm glad you are thinking of ways to stay safe wherever you are. White supremacy is the deep evil of this country. The absolute insanity of people of European ancestry pushing out, killing, and culturally decimating our indigenous tribes and then bringing kidnapped people to be slave workers....it's just beyond disgusting that white Americans think this is their land because they stole it. How could anyone think that skin pigmentation means superiority? Everyone should have their DNA examined. It's so eye opening what mutts we Americans are. It means nothing at all and also everything important. We are humans who all bleed the same color.

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MJane's avatar

I keep asking myself what is the real end game of this insanity because Trump as King can't last. He's old and unhealthy. I'd be surprised if he lives out the whole four years, but who knows? I think he's merely being tolerated as the Mad King for now and for now the forces behind Project 2025 are stuck with him and Musk. They don't seem to mind too much right now because things they want are happening anyway. But...the P25 players want full-on theocracy and are just waiting for the Mad King to die. That's where Vance will come in. However, who knows how this will roll out for certain? All the more reason to resist.

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RM Gregg's avatar

It's unfortunate that the comparisons and parallels always seem to be European when the actual resemblance to US history and the destruction of Reconstruction is right there. Trump and his wingnuts are not trying to build Orban's Hungary, they are recreating Eugene Talmadge's Jim Crow Georgia. It's all there, voter suppression, minority rule, autocratic executives using racist demoguary, submissive courts, and lynch mobs to enforce white supremacy.

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Shilla Nassi's avatar

Thank you for this thoughtful and urgent post.

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