Nothing is ever inevitable. But every political analysis needs to start from the recognition that there is an eminently plausible - and fairly straightforward - path from here to autocratic rule
Since the publication of the article, there has been no coalescing of messaging by the DNC, no address to the nation by Biden, no connecting the dots by Democratic leadership.
From my perspective, the only clear messaging that's emerging is from the never-Trumpers. I can't tell whether Democratic leaders are complacent or in denial, but the lack of action is only serving to feed the apathy and cynicism.
Maybe the national mood will improve next year, maybe abortion and pro-democracy will be enough for another bare win by Biden, but that's not much comfort.
Excellent analysis. Two pieces that i have not seen discussed as issues:
- Business/economy: no "slide into authoritarianism" post WWII has taken place in a country that dominates the global economy in so many ways. How does authoritarian governance coexist with an Apple, JP Morgan Chase, etc., continuing to be what they are? I was deeply disappointed in the nonchalance on display from the business world after '16 but could that change?
- latent patriotism: I never felt a strong desire to serve in the military or government, and i'm not really much of an "activist". but i really care about democracy and liberal values, and if they were under direct, immediate threat as envisioned by the thought experiment, I believe would take considerable personal risk to join in the fight for it. I do think there's a sleeping giant out there of people who wouldn't sit idly by, and would do more than just take to the streets in protest in a big liberal city.
(1) Big companies prosper by obtaining favors from Government -- they will fall all over themselves to be first in line to support Trump's dictatorship (Note: Large Chinese companies are doing just fine under the CCP/Xi dictatorship).
(2) Counting on a bunch of "other people" to protect democracy is likely unwarranted. Most people "go with the flow" which is why a relatively small number of Trump cultists control the Republican party.
Trump is gearing up to become America's Hitler (not the one from the WWII movies about European battles from 1941 - 1945, but the Hitler who ruled Germany from January, 1933 to September, 1939). As such, Trump and his cadre of little fascists (like Stephen Miller and Kash Patel and MTG) will construct and fill concentration camps, conduct show trials of political enemies ("Enemies of the State"), close down or take over critical media, eliminate "unreliable" judges (using threats of violence, "disloyal" judges will be forced out), deploy the IRS against wealthier enemies and demand that Federal Reserve policies benefit Trump businesses.
In foreign policy, Trump would withdraw the US from NATO (or else publicly refuse to honor Article 5, the commitment to defend European nations attacked by Russia). Putin would get a green light on Ukraine and maybe even US weapons to complete his conquest. Poland and the Baltics would be next. Germany would need to quickly develop nuclear weapons to defend against an aggressive Putin regime. Xi would also get a "thumbs up" to go after Taiwan.
One largely unmentioned consequence of a thoroughly corrupt Trump led fascist United States: The US dollar would be dethroned as the world's reserve currency, with the Euro and the Yuan becoming increasingly important in world trade. Most US citizens don't even know what "reserve currency" means, but they will understand a lot better when pretty much everything in Walmart, Costco and Amazon starts costing a lot more. But never fear: Trump will blame all this on Biden and all sorts of scapegoats (e.g., immigrants, black/brown people, the LGBTQ+ community and inevitably, the Jews).
As to climate and energy emergencies: these will be totally off the table. Not a thing will be done (except the cancelling of existing programs). Trump cannot make money from these - no easy kickbacks to his businesses. And the bonus for authoritarian regimes everywhere (not just the US): the more chaotic and cataclysmic the climate becomes, the more people will be demanding strongmen to lead them and punishments for various scapegoats.
As Dr. Z and others have pointed out: another Trump regime is not inevitable. We have to do everything in our power to stop it.
Thank you for writing this analysis. It’s clear, concise, and breaks down Kagen’s article. I appreciate the sobering look at a possible Trump second term.
Queensman eventually will fold like the coward he is. He needs to be petrified by us collectively. Until that happens we collectively need to pressure the system in every way to stand up and do the right thing. He is clearly not yet terrified enough of the power of the courts, the opposition and what awaits him. He's playing the lawyer game as well as it is likely to be played – delay is his strongest tool – but there should come a time when courts say "Dude. You're just another citizen now. Time's up Donnie."
The most salient point for me is that most Americans don’t think this kind of proposed regime will affect them or their children. They believe this to be just another political fight between the right and the left far away from their daily life. Why is nobody talking about what happens to regular families? What happened in Germany, or Italy, or Japan to the regular folk during the rise of this kind of regimes?
I agree. Especially my white, Christian relatives who seem to imagine a second Trump presidency is going to magically return them to a higher status in society and control over other people, and NOT (the much more likely scenario) where the agenda to take away people's civil and human rights rolls over the LGBTQ+ community, immigrants, brown people, and women to inevitably grind away at their rights too.
They're too quick to imagine the future where they get to put their boot on someone else's neck, ignoring the giant boot that will eventually come down on *everyone* who isn't in the inner circle of power in such a regime.
I recall a professor I had many many years ago state that democracy was among the least efficient forms of government. While an oversimplification, it remains largely true and it is that inefficiency to move quickly in one direction or another that autocrats seek to exploit. The chaos we see presently is the result. A few very smart people were throwing up warning signs in 2016 and they were labelled alarmists. Now even the MSM, who has until recently carefully sought delusional middle ground horse race based reporting, is beginning to wake up in a few small areas like the quoted article herein. It has taken that long for the wheels of the world most noted representative democracy to start turning. It barely survived 2020 and is showing definite signs of strain within its judicial branch. But I think it is never inevitable, even if history tells us to be very worried. Like all democratically based societies, it needs the power of the 'dēmos' to come to its rescue. Sadly, that's something that largely has been missing. And while a few voices have been raised, no real movement to counter Trumpism has emerged. This gives me nightmares because I see political acquiescence building rather than subsiding and the apparatchiks growing in strength and boldness. The literal fawning over Nikki Haley after that entirely irrelevant debate of the rest demonstrates how hope springs eternal for those who don't want to do anything. Haley's policies are just as ugly as Trump's and are an anathema to multi racial pluralism. None of them have a chance of being the GOP candidate and all but one have shown a disinterest in protecting the idea of democracy. And those remaining candidates, with perhaps the exception of Christie, will find comfortable positions within a Trump autocracy happy to do the anti-democratic bidding of their leader. That's the story here. There are many prepared to aid and abet and this is but one example. And the fourth estate will not save America. Will the people do nothing remains the key question IMO. There have been many variations of this and it runs the risk of cliché, but I prefer John Stuart Mills, "Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing." That is still my great fear. Reading Prof Zimmer however, reminds me there are many good smart people committed to ideas that truly matter. Thank you.
Agree that we absolutely need systemic changes instead of restoration to pre Trump times. We have a lot of work to do to save democracy and the general welfare so eloquently stated in our preamble. We need governments that work for the people who are not corporations.
This is good. A Trump Presidency isn’t inevitable, but it would be dictatorial, and destroy the government as we know it for the benefit of a few very wealthy people. Trump does mean what he says in his unhinged comments. He is very afraid of criminal accountability.
I think Kagan's clear-eyed assessment is correct.
Since the publication of the article, there has been no coalescing of messaging by the DNC, no address to the nation by Biden, no connecting the dots by Democratic leadership.
From my perspective, the only clear messaging that's emerging is from the never-Trumpers. I can't tell whether Democratic leaders are complacent or in denial, but the lack of action is only serving to feed the apathy and cynicism.
Maybe the national mood will improve next year, maybe abortion and pro-democracy will be enough for another bare win by Biden, but that's not much comfort.
Excellent analysis. Two pieces that i have not seen discussed as issues:
- Business/economy: no "slide into authoritarianism" post WWII has taken place in a country that dominates the global economy in so many ways. How does authoritarian governance coexist with an Apple, JP Morgan Chase, etc., continuing to be what they are? I was deeply disappointed in the nonchalance on display from the business world after '16 but could that change?
- latent patriotism: I never felt a strong desire to serve in the military or government, and i'm not really much of an "activist". but i really care about democracy and liberal values, and if they were under direct, immediate threat as envisioned by the thought experiment, I believe would take considerable personal risk to join in the fight for it. I do think there's a sleeping giant out there of people who wouldn't sit idly by, and would do more than just take to the streets in protest in a big liberal city.
(1) Big companies prosper by obtaining favors from Government -- they will fall all over themselves to be first in line to support Trump's dictatorship (Note: Large Chinese companies are doing just fine under the CCP/Xi dictatorship).
(2) Counting on a bunch of "other people" to protect democracy is likely unwarranted. Most people "go with the flow" which is why a relatively small number of Trump cultists control the Republican party.
Trump is gearing up to become America's Hitler (not the one from the WWII movies about European battles from 1941 - 1945, but the Hitler who ruled Germany from January, 1933 to September, 1939). As such, Trump and his cadre of little fascists (like Stephen Miller and Kash Patel and MTG) will construct and fill concentration camps, conduct show trials of political enemies ("Enemies of the State"), close down or take over critical media, eliminate "unreliable" judges (using threats of violence, "disloyal" judges will be forced out), deploy the IRS against wealthier enemies and demand that Federal Reserve policies benefit Trump businesses.
In foreign policy, Trump would withdraw the US from NATO (or else publicly refuse to honor Article 5, the commitment to defend European nations attacked by Russia). Putin would get a green light on Ukraine and maybe even US weapons to complete his conquest. Poland and the Baltics would be next. Germany would need to quickly develop nuclear weapons to defend against an aggressive Putin regime. Xi would also get a "thumbs up" to go after Taiwan.
One largely unmentioned consequence of a thoroughly corrupt Trump led fascist United States: The US dollar would be dethroned as the world's reserve currency, with the Euro and the Yuan becoming increasingly important in world trade. Most US citizens don't even know what "reserve currency" means, but they will understand a lot better when pretty much everything in Walmart, Costco and Amazon starts costing a lot more. But never fear: Trump will blame all this on Biden and all sorts of scapegoats (e.g., immigrants, black/brown people, the LGBTQ+ community and inevitably, the Jews).
As to climate and energy emergencies: these will be totally off the table. Not a thing will be done (except the cancelling of existing programs). Trump cannot make money from these - no easy kickbacks to his businesses. And the bonus for authoritarian regimes everywhere (not just the US): the more chaotic and cataclysmic the climate becomes, the more people will be demanding strongmen to lead them and punishments for various scapegoats.
As Dr. Z and others have pointed out: another Trump regime is not inevitable. We have to do everything in our power to stop it.
Thank you for writing this analysis. It’s clear, concise, and breaks down Kagen’s article. I appreciate the sobering look at a possible Trump second term.
Queensman eventually will fold like the coward he is. He needs to be petrified by us collectively. Until that happens we collectively need to pressure the system in every way to stand up and do the right thing. He is clearly not yet terrified enough of the power of the courts, the opposition and what awaits him. He's playing the lawyer game as well as it is likely to be played – delay is his strongest tool – but there should come a time when courts say "Dude. You're just another citizen now. Time's up Donnie."
The most salient point for me is that most Americans don’t think this kind of proposed regime will affect them or their children. They believe this to be just another political fight between the right and the left far away from their daily life. Why is nobody talking about what happens to regular families? What happened in Germany, or Italy, or Japan to the regular folk during the rise of this kind of regimes?
I agree. Especially my white, Christian relatives who seem to imagine a second Trump presidency is going to magically return them to a higher status in society and control over other people, and NOT (the much more likely scenario) where the agenda to take away people's civil and human rights rolls over the LGBTQ+ community, immigrants, brown people, and women to inevitably grind away at their rights too.
They're too quick to imagine the future where they get to put their boot on someone else's neck, ignoring the giant boot that will eventually come down on *everyone* who isn't in the inner circle of power in such a regime.
I recall a professor I had many many years ago state that democracy was among the least efficient forms of government. While an oversimplification, it remains largely true and it is that inefficiency to move quickly in one direction or another that autocrats seek to exploit. The chaos we see presently is the result. A few very smart people were throwing up warning signs in 2016 and they were labelled alarmists. Now even the MSM, who has until recently carefully sought delusional middle ground horse race based reporting, is beginning to wake up in a few small areas like the quoted article herein. It has taken that long for the wheels of the world most noted representative democracy to start turning. It barely survived 2020 and is showing definite signs of strain within its judicial branch. But I think it is never inevitable, even if history tells us to be very worried. Like all democratically based societies, it needs the power of the 'dēmos' to come to its rescue. Sadly, that's something that largely has been missing. And while a few voices have been raised, no real movement to counter Trumpism has emerged. This gives me nightmares because I see political acquiescence building rather than subsiding and the apparatchiks growing in strength and boldness. The literal fawning over Nikki Haley after that entirely irrelevant debate of the rest demonstrates how hope springs eternal for those who don't want to do anything. Haley's policies are just as ugly as Trump's and are an anathema to multi racial pluralism. None of them have a chance of being the GOP candidate and all but one have shown a disinterest in protecting the idea of democracy. And those remaining candidates, with perhaps the exception of Christie, will find comfortable positions within a Trump autocracy happy to do the anti-democratic bidding of their leader. That's the story here. There are many prepared to aid and abet and this is but one example. And the fourth estate will not save America. Will the people do nothing remains the key question IMO. There have been many variations of this and it runs the risk of cliché, but I prefer John Stuart Mills, "Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing." That is still my great fear. Reading Prof Zimmer however, reminds me there are many good smart people committed to ideas that truly matter. Thank you.
"Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others."
Agree that we absolutely need systemic changes instead of restoration to pre Trump times. We have a lot of work to do to save democracy and the general welfare so eloquently stated in our preamble. We need governments that work for the people who are not corporations.
This is good. A Trump Presidency isn’t inevitable, but it would be dictatorial, and destroy the government as we know it for the benefit of a few very wealthy people. Trump does mean what he says in his unhinged comments. He is very afraid of criminal accountability.
Thank you for so clearly analyzing and delineating the issues. It helped me a lot. I will pass this on.