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BetBel's avatar

Thank you for this somewhat unnerving essay. My husband and I live in a blue Texas city, and until the last decade, the friction has been more understated. Still, lynchings (James Byrd, Jr. in 1998), the cult of David Koresh (1993) and ample one-sided political overreach have always felt like hot splashes of fear to us. Rural Texas has always had its horrors, especially for people of color.

The thing that caught me off guard, however, was when the local police refused to intervene in the attempt to run Kamala Harris’s bus off the road during the 2020 campaign, and was just laughed off. It was as though the table turned upside down and criminality became funny and laudable to the police.

The other part is the behavior of the execrable Attorney General and Governor, who both seem equally cruel and criminal in their willingness to hurt humans and act outside of accepted legal constraints.

They do especially well in small towns and rural areas where social control is more manageable, but the fever is rising, especially in big suburban areas.

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Geoffrey G's avatar

The other problem with this "Let them leave!" narrative is that it ignores how often formerly united states fight each other across their newly delineated borders. Straight from the headlines: take Ukraine and Russia. Or, for a more obscure contemporary example (to Americans, at least), look at the battle royale that has consumed Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea for years now (and, in a different form, for decades previously), killing far more civilians than even Ukraine. Another historical example familiar to Americans: North and South Koreas and Vietnams. India and Pakistan (and Bangladesh), anyone? During the Cold War, the two Germanies stared down the barrel of potential nuclear war at each other for decades. So if the United States can't even get along with herself, what makes Americans think that two sovereign versions of it marbled into each other in contested ways would?

In short, there is no guarantee and every likelihood that even after a bloodless "National Divorce," the Neo-Confederacy and the Neo-Union Americas would fight each other in a cataclysmic war that would make the American Civil War look quaint. And the trigger could be anything from the long list of zero-sum formerly shared interests and brewing enmities. The Neo-Confederacy's new Jefferson Davis, in particular, would be very tempted to continue the GOP's playbook of stoking Culture Wars and grievances against Blue America to distract from dysfunctions within, except this time it would be pointed at a hated near-abroad adversary. And, in our era of negative partisanship, even elites within this new Blue America Neo-Union would be tempted to do some version of the same, resurrecting the Cold War narrative that "at least we aren't the Soviet Union!" to temper expectations for any liberal projects and leaders and scapegoat their pitiable and dangerous foil to the South.

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