Brace yourselves, this isn’t going to be pretty: A deep dive into the best survey data we have on the ideas and attitudes that shape the political conflict in the United States – Part I
Not the main point of the essay, but it's bugging me: Am I misreading this second chart from PRRI?
(Updated once I looked at the link -- I think Figure 20 from the main report is more accurate; the slide you pulled here is from the slideshow section labeled "extra slides" and might have not gotten proofed. Figure 20 in the main report contradicts it)
Because I'm reading it as:
86% of Republicans think Biden being re-elected is a threat to democracy, but there's no subgroup by religion which reaches 86% (and he does "best" with the white evangelical protestant group, which would be most conservative of the subgroups listed)
Similarly, 91% of Democrats think Trump's re-election is a threat, but most subgroups fall well short of that threshold
Am I missing some piece of statistics math here, or just misreading the chart, or what?
The best insight from your essay (or my interpretation, at least) is that we do find those on the left and the right who fear for the country and often use the same language to express their fears. I have several beer drinking friends who are Trump supporter, or at least very conservative R's. I do not doubt their fears. Every time I mention how Trump threatens democracy when he threatens imprisoning dissenters, eliminating free press and making America a theocratic country, my friends counter with so does Biden. (In order, "Biden charges Trump and others with crimes; Biden and liberal elite control the media: and when it comes to religion, we want to be able to say Merry Xmas, not all those Biden types who insist on saying happy holidays.
Thank you . I believe this to be the best explanation so far of the rational behind to two views of democracy. I am on the side of a multiracial pluralistic democracy that would also respect the rights of all life and realize our symbiotic relationship with all LIFE. Then, maybe we could cooperate and save this planet as a place that can support human life. If you need something to make you smile, watch the Netflix documentary, The Automat”. it will make you proud f the vision of the founding men and just how much it meant to so many. There are interviews with relatives, Colon Powell, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, and many others. It show what we can do when we utilize empathy, compassion, respect, and basic common courtesy for each other. It makes me smile now just thinking of it,
For the Trump-led MAGA movement, democracy is a political system where every election is won by the Party of Trump (the POT Party, formerly known as the Republican Party). If an election is not won by the POT, then the election must have been illegitimate and the results rejected. A MAGA led US government would be as democratic as the former Democratic German Republic, the GDR.
America can be illuminated by contrasts with her most-similar friend, Canada. The book by Canadian pollster, Michael Adams, "Could it happen here?", leverages the same kind of "deep psych dive" into the values of the population, what drives them.
In many ways, Canada and America are very far apart. I know that our "Convoy" mess last winter made it look as if we had a substantial MAGA wing in Canada, but the numbers just aren't the same. Adams found so many positive views of immigrants, so much less perception by immigrants of racism.
A lot of that comes down to the lack of Canadian White Evangelicals, lower religiosity in general. But we've always been very different.
That Flight 93 analogy is (pardon) bullshit, but for a moment let's indulge them, and ask them this: What happened to the passengers of Flight 93? Is that what they're keen to implement? "Let's kill them, and ourselves, to protect democracy!"
I can never decide whether the fundamental stupidity of the right will be our salvation or our doom.
…spoiler alert. It’s going to be the demise of our country. If you have never seen Idiocracy, watch it. It’s supposed to be a comedy. Turns out, it’s a documentary.
I know what you mean, but I stopped thinking it was funny when I realized Anton wasn't making a mistake--he was consciously calling for suicide bombers.
Thank you Professor Zimmer for this thoughtful and terrifying assessment. It’s sad to see, that in the 21st-century, we as a society still look upon other Americans as our enemies.
As I read your assessment. One thing that struck me. How does the prevalence of conservative money, flooding our political system, distort our policies? Has the influence of this financial support brought us to where we are today? To my thinking, it is the major cause of division. Since it seems that virtually an entire party is beholden to these individuals to remain in power.
Why hasn’t there been any movement on the “left” to counter the influence of the “Leonard Leo’s” of the “right”?
No, I didn’t specifically list names because there are far too many. Private money has destroyed our democracy. Republicans seem all too eager to retain this benefit. Sadly, I don’t see many democrats standing up screaming for change.
Great essay, and I'm looking forward to Part II. For the Q&A I have the following topics I'd love to have you address to provide background for. For the life of me, I cannot understand the reasoning behind originalism. I understand the appeal as a rationale, but it'd be helpful to have more background, especially some insight into when it's applied and when it isn't. I suppose that this also goes along with the rise in anti-expert reactions, another idiotic (IMHO) reaction. Also, an essay on "we're not a democracy, we're a republic" would also be helpful. My apologies if you've already addressed these issues in a past essay and a link would be helpful. I'm retired and read a lot of essays on Substack so sometimes I forget about who published what and when. Thanks again for what you're doing.
Another great article, Thomas, with so many valuable links too. I believe a majority of Americans expressed a preference for Fascism vs Democracy about 1940, perhaps influenced by Ann Morrow Lindbergh's book advocating for it. WWII changed that and I wonder if, perhaps, something like Trump's felony conviction or a continuation of GOP dysfunction might be the trigger in these times.
And yet so many showed up at the voting booths in red states to defend reproductive rights. That gave me hope. The problem as I see it is that those of us who do deeply value freedom and democracy are being held back by our ridiculous electoral college system that preferences the ever-more extremist GOP and the party itself puts forward the extremist candidates. Within red states those extremists are hell bent on overturning the next election by whatever crooked means they can within their states and will try to bring that crooked mess straight to Congress where their extremist in Chief Speaker Mike Johnson is ready and willing to do Christian Nationalist bidding. Talk about Holy Hell.
Also, gerrymandering that overpopulates the House and local state legislatures that can then override Dem governor’s wishes and 2 Senators per state regardless of the number of citizens.
Great piece. Important survey. One minor quibble from something towards the end:
"In a related question, 75 percent of Republicans think “the founders of the United States intended it to be a Christian nation with Western European values” – a white Christian nation, that is."
This question in my opinion is deceptive. Or it'll lead to deceptive results. Do I think the Founders were white male supremacists who valued European culture over all else and preferred Christianity when pressed? Yes. I think that's a historically accurate, if incomplete picture of the Founders. And that's the problem. It's more complicated than that. Most Founders were probably deist and many at least tolerated Judaism and Islam. They certainly did NOT want an officially Christian nation, but that was as much about *which version* of Christianity as it was Christianity versus no religion or other religions. So, I might agree with the statement but at the same time I don't think it should determine who we are today. I believe they were white MALE supremacists establishing a white male RICH man's country. But that's who we were not who we are. We were already fighting about that from before the Revolution.
I just think that question doesn't reveal much because it's poorly worded.
I had similar thoughts about the question and deceptive wording. What the Founders conceived of in terms of diversity and what a pluralistic society looks like today are very different. I would have had trouble answering the question because of that duality.
Do you think that the Christianity of those polled is evangelical Protestant? If so should we expect an increase in religious orthodoxy of the kind that is now splitting the Catholics within and of the kind that would expel Catholics from the groups considered Christian?
1. I thought I heard a while back that you were working on a book (maybe on the Politics Girl podcast?). If I'm remembering correctly, when will we get to read it?
2. If we were to take concrete action now with the goal of strengthening or re-establishing democracy in the future, say 25 years from now, what would you recommend?
Hi Jeremy, in response to the second question. In my mind money has distorted our democracy. More so on the right but the left isn’t immune. We need to get all public money out of all election campaigns. All campaigns need to be publicly funded and fully accountable. The political season needs to be drastically reduced. We need to make politicians accountable to VOTERS, not large donors. Politicians spend the bulk of their time fundraising and not legislating. Not until this trend is revered will anything ever change.
None of this fills me with much hope for America. It won't be pretty and most certainly will impact other nations that define themselves as democracies. And it is, IMO, democracy’s definition where the battle converges. When we ask, ‘do Americans value democracy’, we expose the schisms that have long defined the American experience. There are and have always been Americans who honestly strive for a multi-racial pluralistic polity, as well as ugly long standing undercurrents acting to thwart them. The ability to hold contradictory ideas has long been part of America, so it remains to be seen what makes today different and what that might portend. My initial fear is that some of America’s ugliest parts may be strengthening and synthesizing: fanatical Christianity, white supremacy and racism, guns & violence and the destruction of objective reality are together a potent and dangerous cocktail. I look forward to as well as fear Part II.
Well, I am just one (50 y) German, and it's a mixture of disbelief an horror I feel (but not only on US tendencies, but also with 'our' right-wing AfD). At least pseudo-christianity (like Creationism) is not widespread here, and I cannot wrap my head around how (at least) 40% of the US support such a bigoted person, including half of the political parties; but the wish for a "Führer" seems to be creepingly increasing in and around Germany, too. (still, Germany is luckily lagging behind other countries like Hungary or Italy )
Not the main point of the essay, but it's bugging me: Am I misreading this second chart from PRRI?
(Updated once I looked at the link -- I think Figure 20 from the main report is more accurate; the slide you pulled here is from the slideshow section labeled "extra slides" and might have not gotten proofed. Figure 20 in the main report contradicts it)
Because I'm reading it as:
86% of Republicans think Biden being re-elected is a threat to democracy, but there's no subgroup by religion which reaches 86% (and he does "best" with the white evangelical protestant group, which would be most conservative of the subgroups listed)
Similarly, 91% of Democrats think Trump's re-election is a threat, but most subgroups fall well short of that threshold
Am I missing some piece of statistics math here, or just misreading the chart, or what?
The best insight from your essay (or my interpretation, at least) is that we do find those on the left and the right who fear for the country and often use the same language to express their fears. I have several beer drinking friends who are Trump supporter, or at least very conservative R's. I do not doubt their fears. Every time I mention how Trump threatens democracy when he threatens imprisoning dissenters, eliminating free press and making America a theocratic country, my friends counter with so does Biden. (In order, "Biden charges Trump and others with crimes; Biden and liberal elite control the media: and when it comes to religion, we want to be able to say Merry Xmas, not all those Biden types who insist on saying happy holidays.
Thank you . I believe this to be the best explanation so far of the rational behind to two views of democracy. I am on the side of a multiracial pluralistic democracy that would also respect the rights of all life and realize our symbiotic relationship with all LIFE. Then, maybe we could cooperate and save this planet as a place that can support human life. If you need something to make you smile, watch the Netflix documentary, The Automat”. it will make you proud f the vision of the founding men and just how much it meant to so many. There are interviews with relatives, Colon Powell, Ruth Bader Ginsberg, and many others. It show what we can do when we utilize empathy, compassion, respect, and basic common courtesy for each other. It makes me smile now just thinking of it,
For the Trump-led MAGA movement, democracy is a political system where every election is won by the Party of Trump (the POT Party, formerly known as the Republican Party). If an election is not won by the POT, then the election must have been illegitimate and the results rejected. A MAGA led US government would be as democratic as the former Democratic German Republic, the GDR.
America can be illuminated by contrasts with her most-similar friend, Canada. The book by Canadian pollster, Michael Adams, "Could it happen here?", leverages the same kind of "deep psych dive" into the values of the population, what drives them.
In many ways, Canada and America are very far apart. I know that our "Convoy" mess last winter made it look as if we had a substantial MAGA wing in Canada, but the numbers just aren't the same. Adams found so many positive views of immigrants, so much less perception by immigrants of racism.
A lot of that comes down to the lack of Canadian White Evangelicals, lower religiosity in general. But we've always been very different.
That Flight 93 analogy is (pardon) bullshit, but for a moment let's indulge them, and ask them this: What happened to the passengers of Flight 93? Is that what they're keen to implement? "Let's kill them, and ourselves, to protect democracy!"
I can never decide whether the fundamental stupidity of the right will be our salvation or our doom.
…spoiler alert. It’s going to be the demise of our country. If you have never seen Idiocracy, watch it. It’s supposed to be a comedy. Turns out, it’s a documentary.
Feels like it, it is kinda funny but... Agreed
I mean they even thru around the idea of The Rock for president, that is like straight out of the movie
I know what you mean, but I stopped thinking it was funny when I realized Anton wasn't making a mistake--he was consciously calling for suicide bombers.
Thank you Professor Zimmer for this thoughtful and terrifying assessment. It’s sad to see, that in the 21st-century, we as a society still look upon other Americans as our enemies.
As I read your assessment. One thing that struck me. How does the prevalence of conservative money, flooding our political system, distort our policies? Has the influence of this financial support brought us to where we are today? To my thinking, it is the major cause of division. Since it seems that virtually an entire party is beholden to these individuals to remain in power.
Why hasn’t there been any movement on the “left” to counter the influence of the “Leonard Leo’s” of the “right”?
Please don’t over look how much money the Koch’s have spent in an effort to mold their own form of government.
No, I didn’t specifically list names because there are far too many. Private money has destroyed our democracy. Republicans seem all too eager to retain this benefit. Sadly, I don’t see many democrats standing up screaming for change.
Great essay, and I'm looking forward to Part II. For the Q&A I have the following topics I'd love to have you address to provide background for. For the life of me, I cannot understand the reasoning behind originalism. I understand the appeal as a rationale, but it'd be helpful to have more background, especially some insight into when it's applied and when it isn't. I suppose that this also goes along with the rise in anti-expert reactions, another idiotic (IMHO) reaction. Also, an essay on "we're not a democracy, we're a republic" would also be helpful. My apologies if you've already addressed these issues in a past essay and a link would be helpful. I'm retired and read a lot of essays on Substack so sometimes I forget about who published what and when. Thanks again for what you're doing.
Another great article, Thomas, with so many valuable links too. I believe a majority of Americans expressed a preference for Fascism vs Democracy about 1940, perhaps influenced by Ann Morrow Lindbergh's book advocating for it. WWII changed that and I wonder if, perhaps, something like Trump's felony conviction or a continuation of GOP dysfunction might be the trigger in these times.
And yet so many showed up at the voting booths in red states to defend reproductive rights. That gave me hope. The problem as I see it is that those of us who do deeply value freedom and democracy are being held back by our ridiculous electoral college system that preferences the ever-more extremist GOP and the party itself puts forward the extremist candidates. Within red states those extremists are hell bent on overturning the next election by whatever crooked means they can within their states and will try to bring that crooked mess straight to Congress where their extremist in Chief Speaker Mike Johnson is ready and willing to do Christian Nationalist bidding. Talk about Holy Hell.
Also, gerrymandering that overpopulates the House and local state legislatures that can then override Dem governor’s wishes and 2 Senators per state regardless of the number of citizens.
Great piece. Important survey. One minor quibble from something towards the end:
"In a related question, 75 percent of Republicans think “the founders of the United States intended it to be a Christian nation with Western European values” – a white Christian nation, that is."
This question in my opinion is deceptive. Or it'll lead to deceptive results. Do I think the Founders were white male supremacists who valued European culture over all else and preferred Christianity when pressed? Yes. I think that's a historically accurate, if incomplete picture of the Founders. And that's the problem. It's more complicated than that. Most Founders were probably deist and many at least tolerated Judaism and Islam. They certainly did NOT want an officially Christian nation, but that was as much about *which version* of Christianity as it was Christianity versus no religion or other religions. So, I might agree with the statement but at the same time I don't think it should determine who we are today. I believe they were white MALE supremacists establishing a white male RICH man's country. But that's who we were not who we are. We were already fighting about that from before the Revolution.
I just think that question doesn't reveal much because it's poorly worded.
I had similar thoughts about the question and deceptive wording. What the Founders conceived of in terms of diversity and what a pluralistic society looks like today are very different. I would have had trouble answering the question because of that duality.
Funny how this "survey" purports to reflect Americans' attitudes, yet I don't recalls having ever participated in it.
A survey is a survey.
Do you think that the Christianity of those polled is evangelical Protestant? If so should we expect an increase in religious orthodoxy of the kind that is now splitting the Catholics within and of the kind that would expel Catholics from the groups considered Christian?
Two questions for the Q+A:
1. I thought I heard a while back that you were working on a book (maybe on the Politics Girl podcast?). If I'm remembering correctly, when will we get to read it?
2. If we were to take concrete action now with the goal of strengthening or re-establishing democracy in the future, say 25 years from now, what would you recommend?
Hi Jeremy, in response to the second question. In my mind money has distorted our democracy. More so on the right but the left isn’t immune. We need to get all public money out of all election campaigns. All campaigns need to be publicly funded and fully accountable. The political season needs to be drastically reduced. We need to make politicians accountable to VOTERS, not large donors. Politicians spend the bulk of their time fundraising and not legislating. Not until this trend is revered will anything ever change.
And get rid of professional lobbyists!
None of this fills me with much hope for America. It won't be pretty and most certainly will impact other nations that define themselves as democracies. And it is, IMO, democracy’s definition where the battle converges. When we ask, ‘do Americans value democracy’, we expose the schisms that have long defined the American experience. There are and have always been Americans who honestly strive for a multi-racial pluralistic polity, as well as ugly long standing undercurrents acting to thwart them. The ability to hold contradictory ideas has long been part of America, so it remains to be seen what makes today different and what that might portend. My initial fear is that some of America’s ugliest parts may be strengthening and synthesizing: fanatical Christianity, white supremacy and racism, guns & violence and the destruction of objective reality are together a potent and dangerous cocktail. I look forward to as well as fear Part II.
Well, I am just one (50 y) German, and it's a mixture of disbelief an horror I feel (but not only on US tendencies, but also with 'our' right-wing AfD). At least pseudo-christianity (like Creationism) is not widespread here, and I cannot wrap my head around how (at least) 40% of the US support such a bigoted person, including half of the political parties; but the wish for a "Führer" seems to be creepingly increasing in and around Germany, too. (still, Germany is luckily lagging behind other countries like Hungary or Italy )